Tuesday, April 4, 2017

What Stocks to Invest in April 2017?

Picture shows a puzzled investor wondering which stocks to buy.
A puzzled investor wondering which stocks to buy in April 2017

This month we have further tightened the rules for buying stocks. Besides being a member of our ‘Portfolio 2K15’, the stocks shall satisfy the three criteria prescribed below:


  1. The Price to Book Value (P2BV) Ratio shall be less than 1.00. This means we will allocate money to a stock under this rule to only those stocks that are available at or at a discount to the book value.
  2. The Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio shall be below 10.
  3. The Dividend Yield shall be 4.5% or above. However, a mere good dividend yield is not sufficient. In addition, the scrip must have passed at least one of the two previous tests. Meaning if the share proves expensive under both the P2BV and PE criteria, it is ineligible for allocation merely on the grounds of an attractive dividend yield.

The total investible sum is taken as multiples of 12,000, that is Rs.12,000, 24000 or 120,000 and so on, depending on the investible surplus available with the investor.

The basic unit of 12,000 is equally distributed among the three criteria at Rs.4,000 or multiples thereof.

The stocks that made the cut are:

 Serial Number
Stock
Total Allocation
CMP on 4th April 2017
Quantity to Buy
1
NHPC
541
32.25
17
2
PFC
4542
147.7
31
3
REC
4456
179.8
25
4
ONGC
871
185.8
5
5
OIL
934
330.3
3
6
GE SHIP
656
430.05
2

Total
12000

Now let us examine the eligible candidates separately under each of the three categories in detail.

Price to Book Value (P2BV) Ratio:


Criterion: P2BV ≤ 1.00; Allocable sum: Multiples of Rs.4000;
 Serial Number
Stock
Discount available in P2BV
Weightage
Allocation of Investible Amount
1
NHPC
1.13
-0.13
FALSE
0
2
PFC
0.54
0.46
35.94%
1438
3
REC
0.62
0.38
29.69%
1188
4
NMDC
1.92
-0.92
FALSE
0
5
CAIRN
1.17
-0.17
FALSE
0
6
SJVN
1.27
-0.27
FALSE
0
7
Neyveli Lignite
1.18
-0.18
FALSE
0
8
ONGC
0.89
0.11
8.59%
344
9
NALCO
1.5
-0.5
FALSE
0
10
MOIL
1.53
-0.53
FALSE
0
11
HZL
3.45
-2.45
FALSE
0
12
OIL
0.88
0.12
9.38%
375
13
GE SHIP
0.79
0.21
16.41%
656
14
VEDANTA
1.81
-0.81
FALSE
0
15
SCI
0.52
0
0.00%
0
 Total
Sum of Positive Values
1.28
1
4000


Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) is an exception. Even though the stock is available at a significant discount of 48% to the book value of its assets, the company is continuously in losses and hence no allocation is made.

Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio:



 Serial Number
Stock
Weightage
Allocation of Investible Amount
1
NHPC
13.06
FALSE
0
2
PFC
5.74
50.53%
2021
3
REC
5.83
49.47%
1979
4
NMDC
16.1
FALSE
0
5
CAIRN
66.03
FALSE
0
6
SJVN
10
0.00%
0
7
Neyveli Lignite
13.13
FALSE
0
8
ONGC
13.62
FALSE
0
9
NALCO
23.78
FALSE
0
10
MOIL
19.76
FALSE
0
11
HZL
17.38
FALSE
0
12
OIL
13.24
FALSE
0
13
GE SHIP
11.93
FALSE
0
14
VEDANTA
18.07
FALSE
0
15
SCI
98.27
FALSE
0
 Total
Sum of Positive Values
1
4000

SJVN Limited has a PE Ratio of exactly 10 and not being below 10 it had not been given any allocation for this month.


Dividend Yield:


 Serial Number
Stock
Dividend Yield
Weightage
Allocation of Investible Amount
1
NHPC
4.69%
13.52%
540.95
2
PFC
9.39%
27.08%
1083.04
3
REC
11.18%
32.24%
1289.50
4
NMDC
8.21%
FALSE
0.00
5
CAIRN
0.99%
FALSE
0.00
6
SJVN
3.44%
FALSE
0.00
7
Neyveli Lignite
2.78%
FALSE
0.00
8
ONGC
4.57%
13.18%
527.10
9
NALCO
2.67%
FALSE
0.00
10
MOIL
1.59%
FALSE
0.00
11
HZL
9.52%
FALSE
0.00
12
OIL
4.85%
13.99%
559.40
13
GE SHIP
3.13%
FALSE
0.00
14
VEDANTA
1.28%
FALSE
0.00
15
SCI
0.00%
FALSE
0.00
 Total
Sum of Positive Values
8.43
1
4000


NMDC and Hindustan Zinc Limited (HZL) are again exceptions. Even though their dividend yields are significantly higher than the threshold 4.5%, they fail to pass the tests in both P2BV and PE Ratio hurdles we had set. Basically in April 2017 they are expensive and hence shall not be bought, even though dividend yield is high.

To conclude, NHPC Ltd., Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (PFC), Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd. (REC), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC), Oil India Ltd. (OIL), and Great Eastern Shipping (GE Ship) are the stocks to buy this April 2017 in the extent of the amount allocated in the table.